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ASSURANT, INC. (AIZ)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 delivered strong results: adjusted EPS of $5.10 and GAAP diluted EPS of $4.56, with adjusted EBITDA of $386.0M and adjusted EBITDA ex-catastrophes of $415.8M .
  • Versus Wall Street consensus (S&P Global), AIZ posted a significant EPS beat (5.10 vs 4.45; +14.6%) and a modest revenue beat ($3.158B vs $3.126B; +1.0%); EBITDA was roughly in line on S&P’s definition (374.7M actual vs 375.5M est.)—note definitional differences vs company “Adjusted EBITDA” [Values retrieved from S&P Global]*.
  • Guidance raised: adjusted EPS (ex-cats) now “approaching 10% growth” and adjusted EBITDA (ex-cats) “mid- to high single-digit growth”; tax-rate and depreciation lowered (19–21% ETR; ~$155M depreciation), and share repurchases increased to $250–$300M for 2025 .
  • Key catalysts: sustained Global Housing outperformance (favorable non-cat loss experience and prior-year reserve development) and Connected Living momentum (mobile protection growth, trade-in volumes), plus enhanced AI-enabled operational efficiencies across device care and loan tracking .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Global Housing Adjusted EBITDA up 33% YoY; ex-cat up 18%, driven by favorable non-cat loss experience, prior period reserve development ($33.9M), and policy growth from pressure in the voluntary market .
    • Connected Living strength: device protection and trade-in programs drove Global Lifestyle Adjusted EBITDA +6% YoY; management highlighted technology investments and AI-enabled platforms to expand market-leading positions .
    • CEO tone confident: “Through continued investments in technology, including AI-enabled platforms, we are poised to expand our market-leading positions and create further shareholder value,” (Keith Demmings) .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Corporate & Other loss widened (Adjusted EBITDA: -$29.8M vs -$27.2M YoY), reflecting higher employee-related expenses and lower investment income .
    • Reportable catastrophes still a headwind ($29.8M in Q2; $186.8M YTD), though lower than prior year quarter; management continues to monitor macro drivers (tariffs, inflation) affecting claims and demand .
    • Lifestyle benefit ratio mixed per Q&A; Auto requires continued rate earn-through and claims process improvements—management sees improvement but acknowledges variability by client mix .

Financial Results

Multi-Period Key Metrics (oldest → newest)

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Total Revenues ($USD Millions)$3,104.8 $3,074.0 $3,158.4
GAAP Net Income ($USD Millions)$201.3 $146.6 $235.3
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$3.87 $2.83 $4.56
Adjusted EPS ($)$4.79 $3.39 $5.10
Adjusted EPS ex-cat ($)$5.54 $5.79 $5.56
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$381.4 $282.2 $386.0
Adjusted EBITDA ex-cat ($USD Millions)$431.5 $439.2 $415.8

Segment Breakdown (Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024)

SegmentAdjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions) Q2 2024Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions) Q2 2025Adj. EBITDA ex-cat ($USD Millions) Q2 2024Adj. EBITDA ex-cat ($USD Millions) Q2 2025Net Earned Premiums, Fees & Other Income ($USD Millions) Q2 2024Net Earned Premiums, Fees & Other Income ($USD Millions) Q2 2025
Global Lifestyle$189.7 $201.4 $189.9 $201.4 $2,183.5 $2,350.8
Global Housing$160.9 $214.4 $206.4 $244.2 $633.6 $697.7
Corporate & Other$(27.2) $(29.8) $(27.2) $(29.8) N/AN/A

KPIs and Operating Metrics

KPIQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Holding Company Liquidity ($USD Millions)$673 $501 $518
Share Repurchases in Quarter ($USD Millions)$120 $62 $62
Reportable Catastrophes ($USD Millions)$50.1 $157.0 $29.8
Favorable Prior Period Reserve Development ($USD Millions)$38.3 (Q4 detail) $26.4 $33.9
Lifestyle Subscribers (Mobile)N/AN/A65,000,000 total; +2,400,000 YoY; +700,000 sequential
Global Auto Net Written Premiums (YTD growth)N/AN/A+8% YTD
Global Housing Combined Ratio (YTD, excl. PYD; with cats)N/AN/A87%; aiming mid-80s FY with ~$300M cat assumption

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EPS (ex-cat)FY 2025Modest growth Approaching 10% growth Raised
Adjusted EBITDA (ex-cat)FY 2025Modest growth Mid- to high single-digit growth Raised
Effective Tax RateFY 2025~20–22% ~19–21% Lowered
Depreciation ExpenseFY 2025~$160M ~$155M Lowered
Interest ExpenseFY 2025~$107M ~$107M Maintained
Amortization of Purchased IntangiblesFY 2025~$65M ~$65M Maintained
Corporate & Other Adjusted EBITDA LossFY 2025~$(115)M ~$(115)M Maintained
Share RepurchasesFY 2025Not specified as range$250–$300M expected (upper end of guidance) Raised / New specificity
Quarterly DividendOngoing$0.80/share (prior cadence)$0.80/share declared Aug 14, 2025 Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024)Previous Mentions (Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
AI/Technology InitiativesInvestments supporting growth, Connected Living incremental investments Focus on efficiencies; reaffirming outlook; tech investment noted broadly Specific AI use-cases in device care (robotics/AI), Personal Tech support, and generative AI for loan-doc processing Accelerating
Tariffs/MacroOutlook included potential tariff effects and macro monitoring Outlook considered tariffs; monitoring inflation, FX, rates Limited impact in 1H; tariff assumptions embedded in FY outlook Stable / Managed
Connected Living PerformanceMobile/trade-in growth; FY growth drivers Lifestyle down 5% YoY in Q1; Connected Living underlying growth Lifestyle +6% YoY; mobile protection and trade-in drove gains; subscriber growth Improving
Global AutomotiveElevated claims in 2024; stable underlying Stable; lower investment income offset by improved loss experience Modest earnings increase, improved loss ratios; +8% YTD net written premiums; new partnerships (Sioka) Improving
Global HousingStrong FY 2024; top-line growth; favorable PYD Ex-cat EBITDA +31% in Q1; higher cats from CA wildfires Ex-cat EBITDA +18% in Q2; favorable non-cat loss, higher policies in-force; lenders’ voluntary market pressure Strong / Sustained
Renters/PMC ChannelGrowth from PMC channel cited N/ADouble-digit premium growth via Coverage360 Plus; new top-15 PMC partner; multiyear renewals Expanding
Regulatory/LegalFlorida reforms helped PYD [implicit in housing performance] N/APrior-year development drivers: Florida regulatory changes, lower frequencies, lower inflation than expected Beneficial

Management Commentary

  • CEO (Keith Demmings): “We delivered very strong second quarter results… Global Housing continued to outperform… In Global Lifestyle, we saw momentum in mobile device protection and positive trends in Global Automotive… Through continued investments in technology, including AI-enabled platforms, we are poised to expand our market-leading positions and create further shareholder value” .
  • CFO (Keith Meier): “Second quarter adjusted EBITDA increased 13% and adjusted earnings per share grew 17%, both excluding CATS… Holding company liquidity was $518M… Our businesses upstreamed over $230M of cash flow… We now expect share repurchases… between $250M to $300M” .
  • Housing drivers: “Homeowners continued to benefit from favorable non-catastrophe loss experience with lower claims frequencies and increases to lender-placed policies in force…” .
  • AI deployment: “Generative AI solutions to enhance the speed and accuracy of document classification and processing across our loan tracking solutions with impressive early results” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Lifestyle benefit ratio and Auto trend: Management sees an inflection in vehicle service contract loss experience supporting growth; benefit ratio varies by client mix but Auto momentum is building .
  • Investment income lumpy but portfolio strong: Book yield ~5.533% with sequential and YoY improvements; expects investment income up for the year despite shorter-term/cash offsets .
  • Pull-forward effects: Trade-in activity likely pulled forward ahead of tariffs; main profitability driver was device protection subscriber growth (+700k sequential; +2.4M YoY) .
  • Housing expense leverage: Selling/underwriting ~20% of expense base; significant scope to leverage the remaining ~80% via scale and technology/automation .
  • Prior-year development & tariffs: PYD driven by Florida regulatory changes, lower frequencies, lower-than-expected inflation; tariffs had limited impact in 1H and are embedded in 2H outlook .

Estimates Context

Metric (Q2 2025)Consensus (S&P Global)Actual (S&P Global)Beat/Miss
Primary EPS ($)4.45363*5.10*Beat
Revenue ($USD)3,125,821,330*3,158,400,000*Beat
EBITDA ($USD)375,470,330*374,700,000*In line / slight miss

Values retrieved from S&P Global*. Note: S&P EBITDA definition may differ from company “Adjusted EBITDA” (company-reported Q2 Adjusted EBITDA was $386.0M) .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Housing strength persists: favorable non-cat loss trends and prior-year reserve releases, plus lender-placed policy growth, underpin earnings resilience in 2H .
  • Connected Living subscriber momentum and trade-in volumes support Lifestyle growth; expect normal seasonality with lower sequential trade-in volumes in Q3 .
  • Raised 2025 outlook and lower tax/depreciation assumptions increase probability of estimate revisions upward; monitor consensus changes post-call .
  • Capital returns intensifying: $250–$300M expected repurchases at upper end of guidance provide EPS support; quarterly dividend maintained at $0.80 .
  • Watch macro/tariffs: limited impact so far and embedded assumptions for 2H; continued vigilance on inflation and FX .
  • Near-term trading implication: AIZ’s EPS beat and outlook raise are positive catalysts; Housing and Connected Living narratives remain constructive with AI-enabled efficiency gains .
  • Medium-term thesis: Diversified B2B2C model, technology-led operations, and growing client pipeline (including Q3 rollout of new mortgage servicer adding ~300k loans) support continued profitable growth beyond 2025 .